Spiritforged

This box trades at $226 — right at its 1-year high. It's in a steady climb: up 60.0% over 90 days and still rising this week. That puts it in the upper part of its tracked range. It typically swings about ±20.7% in a month. Worst tracked stretch: a 23% drawdown from peak.

eBay supply is tightening: active listings are down 76% over the last 60 days (~112 live now). The set's cards are worth about $14,033 — 62.1× the box price, vs a typical 61.1× for Riftbound. Across Riftbound boxes the median 30-day move is +27.0% (100% of boxes up), and this one is running 5.0 points ahead of that pace. Beating its own market adds +1 — the move is this box's, not the tide's.

Tightening supply with a price that's holding is the classic setup — rated Strong Buy. It's also pushing into new highs rather than stalling at them: supply is tightening while the price keeps making ground, and the last week hasn't turned down. A squeeze that's still being paid up for is the strongest version of this setup, so being near the high counts for it here, not against it. What would end it: supply refilling (the 60-day drop easing back under 10%), or the 30-day price slipping more than 2%.

Context & evidence · trades at 1.9× the ~$120 standard retail price of a Riftbound box of its era · data confidence A: 108 price reads over 152 days · 18 supply reads · volatility measured. Grades improve automatically as history accrues — we publish the evidence depth, not just the verdict.