This box trades at $188, 17% below its 1-year high of $226. It ran up 34.5% over 90 days but has given back 8.0% in the last month. It sits mid-range for the period tracked. It typically swings about ±18.6% in a month. Worst tracked stretch: a 23% drawdown from peak; it sits 17% below that peak now.
eBay supply is growing: active listings are up 9% over the last 60 days — more sellers than buyers for now. The set's cards are worth about $15,282 — 81.4× the box price, vs a typical 83.1× for Riftbound. Across Riftbound boxes the median 30-day move is -12.4% (0% of boxes up), and this one is running 4.4 points ahead of that pace. Beating its own market adds +1 — the move is this box's, not the tide's.
No supply contraction and no price momentum — nothing actionable right now. Two ways it earns a Buy rating: a 60-day supply drop past 10% while the price holds, or a value setup — a price near the bottom of its range that stabilizes while the set's card value stays rich vs the box.
Context & evidence · trades at 1.6× the ~$120 standard retail price of a Riftbound box of its era · data confidence A: 121 price reads over 197 days · 30 supply reads · volatility measured. Grades improve automatically as history accrues — we publish the evidence depth, not just the verdict.
Price history
eBay supply
