Origins

This box trades at $298, 12% below its 1-year high of $338. It's in a steady climb: up 71.4% over 90 days and still rising this week. That puts it in the upper part of its tracked range. It typically swings about ±22.3% in a month. Worst tracked stretch: a 52% drawdown from peak; it sits 12% below that peak now.

eBay supply is tightening: active listings are down 55% over the last 60 days (~137 live now). The set's cards are worth about $17,917 — 60.2× the box price, vs a typical 61.1× for Riftbound. Across Riftbound boxes the median 30-day move is +27.0% (100% of boxes up), and this one is running 10.0 points behind that pace. Lagging its own market trims 1 point.

Tightening supply with a price that's holding is the classic setup — rated Strong Buy. What would end it: supply refilling (the 60-day drop easing back under 10%), or the 30-day price slipping more than 2%.

Context & evidence · trades at 2.5× the ~$120 standard retail price of a Riftbound box of its era · data confidence A: 108 price reads over 152 days · 18 supply reads · volatility measured. Grades improve automatically as history accrues — we publish the evidence depth, not just the verdict.