This box trades at $504, 10% below its 1-year high of $560. It's been sliding: down 6.5% over 90 days and still soft. It sits mid-range for the period tracked. It typically swings about ±2.0% in a month. Worst tracked stretch: a 10% drawdown from peak; it sits 10% below that peak now.
eBay supply is growing: active listings are up 29% over the last 60 days — more sellers than buyers for now. The set's cards are worth about $1,041 — 2.1× the box price, vs a typical 2.9× for Pokemon. That thin multiple trims 1 point off the score. Across Pokemon boxes the median 30-day move is -4.7% (14% of boxes up), and this one is running 1.7 points behind that pace.
No supply contraction and no price momentum — nothing actionable right now. Two ways it earns a Buy rating: a 60-day supply drop past 10% while the price holds, or a value setup — a price near the bottom of its range that stabilizes while the set's card value stays rich vs the box.
Context & evidence · trades at 3.5× the ~$144 standard retail price of a Pokemon box of its era · data confidence A: 110 price reads over 153 days · 18 supply reads · volatility measured. Grades improve automatically as history accrues — we publish the evidence depth, not just the verdict.
Price history
eBay supply
