This box trades at $493, 2% below its 1-year high of $504. Price has been broadly stable across the last quarter. That leaves it near the bottom of its tracked range. It typically swings about ±0.9% in a month — calm by Pokemon box standards, so moves that size are worth noticing.
eBay supply is tightening: active listings are down 2% over the last 60 days (~52 live now). The set's cards are worth about $599 — 1.2× the box price, vs a typical 2.9× for Pokemon. That thin multiple trims 1 point off the score. Across Pokemon boxes the median 30-day move is -4.7% (14% of boxes up), and this one is running 4.2 points ahead of that pace. Beating its own market adds +1 — the move is this box's, not the tide's.
No supply contraction and no price momentum — nothing actionable right now. Two ways it earns a Buy rating: a 60-day supply drop past 10% while the price holds, or a value setup — a price near the bottom of its range that stabilizes while the set's card value stays rich vs the box.
Context & evidence · trades at 3.1× the ~$162 standard retail price of a Pokemon box of its era · data confidence A: 104 price reads over 136 days · 14 supply reads · volatility measured. Grades improve automatically as history accrues — we publish the evidence depth, not just the verdict.
Price history
eBay supply
