This box trades at $188, 48% below its 1-year high of $360. It's been sliding: down 31.0% over 90 days and still soft. That leaves it near the bottom of its tracked range. It typically swings about ±16.8% in a month — jumpy for a Pokemon box, so single-digit dips here are mostly noise. Worst tracked stretch: a 53% drawdown from peak; it sits 48% below that peak now.
eBay supply is tightening: active listings are down 21% over the last 60 days (~2204 live now). The set's cards are worth about $804 — 4.3× the box price, vs a typical 2.9× for Pokemon. Across Pokemon boxes the median 30-day move is -1.2% (32% of boxes up), and this one is running 0.3 points ahead of that pace.
This set released 2026-07-17, 87 days ago. Launch allocation is still selling through, so a contracting listing count is ordinary retail behavior rather than a squeeze — the same reason singles and ETBs hold new sets back. Ratings unlock at 90 days old — 3 days from now.
Context & evidence · trades at 1.2× the ~$162 standard retail price of a Pokemon box of its era · data confidence A: 85 price reads over 160 days · 30 supply reads · volatility measured. Grades improve automatically as history accrues — we publish the evidence depth, not just the verdict.
Price history
eBay supply
