Pitch Black

This box trades at $189, 47% below its 1-year high of $360. It's down 25.4% over 90 days, but the last week ticked up — possibly finding a floor. That leaves it near the bottom of its tracked range. It typically swings about ±14.5% in a month — jumpy for a Pokemon box, so single-digit dips here are mostly noise. Worst tracked stretch: a 51% drawdown from peak; it sits 47% below that peak now.

eBay supply is growing: active listings are up 224% over the last 60 days — more sellers than buyers for now. The set's cards are worth about $1,063 — 5.6× the box price, vs a typical 2.9× for Pokemon. That rich multiple adds +1 to the score. Across Pokemon boxes the median 30-day move is -4.7% (14% of boxes up), and this one is running 5.2 points behind that pace. Lagging its own market trims 1 point.

No supply contraction and no price momentum — nothing actionable right now. Two ways it earns a Buy rating: a 60-day supply drop past 10% while the price holds, or a value setup — a price near the bottom of its range that stabilizes while the set's card value stays rich vs the box.

Context & evidence · trades at 1.2× the ~$162 standard retail price of a Pokemon box of its era · data confidence B: moderate price history (72 reads / 115 days) · 18 supply reads · volatility measured. Grades improve automatically as history accrues — we publish the evidence depth, not just the verdict.