This box trades at $276, 23% below its 1-year high of $360. It fell 23.5% over 90 days and has stabilized in the last month. That leaves it near the bottom of its tracked range. It typically swings about ±16.3% in a month — jumpy for a Pokemon box, so single-digit dips here are mostly noise. Worst tracked stretch: a 31% drawdown from peak; it sits 23% below that peak now.
eBay supply is growing: active listings are up 67% over the last 60 days — more sellers than buyers for now. Across Pokemon boxes the median 30-day move is +0.9% (60% of boxes up), and this one is running 5.9 points ahead of that pace. Beating its own market adds +1 — the move is this box's, not the tide's.
No supply contraction and no price momentum — nothing actionable right now. What to watch for: a 60-day supply drop past 10% while the price holds, which flags BUY SETUP.