This box trades at $393, 18% below its 1-year high of $479. It's down 10.6% over 90 days, but the last week ticked up — possibly finding a floor. That leaves it near the bottom of its tracked range. It typically swings about ±7.9% in a month — jumpy for a Pokemon box, so single-digit dips here are mostly noise. Worst tracked stretch: a 23% drawdown from peak; it sits 18% below that peak now.
eBay supply is tightening: active listings are down 1% over the last 60 days (~732 live now). The set's cards are worth about $1,299 — 3.3× the box price, vs a typical 2.9× for Pokemon. Across Pokemon boxes the median 30-day move is -1.2% (32% of boxes up), and this one is running 0.0 points behind that pace.
This is a value setup, not a momentum one: the price sits near the bottom of its range, the last week has stabilized, supply isn't expanding, and the set's cards are worth more than usual relative to the box — rated Buy. What would end it: the price rolling over again (a negative week), supply expanding (a reprint tell), or the set's card value thinning out relative to the box.
Context & evidence · trades at 2.4× the ~$162 standard retail price of a Pokemon box of its era · data confidence A: 123 price reads over 198 days · 30 supply reads · volatility measured. Grades improve automatically as history accrues — we publish the evidence depth, not just the verdict.
Price history
eBay supply
