This box trades at $394, 18% below its 1-year high of $479. It's down 9.8% over 90 days, but the last week ticked up — possibly finding a floor. That leaves it near the bottom of its tracked range. It typically swings about ±10.7% in a month — jumpy for a Pokemon box, so single-digit dips here are mostly noise. Worst tracked stretch: a 22% drawdown from peak; it sits 18% below that peak now.
eBay supply is growing: active listings are up 24% over the last 60 days — more sellers than buyers for now. The set's cards are worth about $1,402 — 3.6× the box price, vs a typical 2.9× for Pokemon. Across Pokemon boxes the median 30-day move is -4.7% (14% of boxes up), and this one is running 3.6 points behind that pace. Lagging its own market trims 1 point.
No supply contraction and no price momentum — nothing actionable right now. Two ways it earns a Buy rating: a 60-day supply drop past 10% while the price holds, or a value setup — a price near the bottom of its range that stabilizes while the set's card value stays rich vs the box.
Context & evidence · trades at 2.4× the ~$162 standard retail price of a Pokemon box of its era · data confidence A: 110 price reads over 153 days · 18 supply reads · volatility measured. Grades improve automatically as history accrues — we publish the evidence depth, not just the verdict.
Price history
eBay supply
