This box trades at $290, 12% below its 1-year high of $329. It's down 10.2% over 90 days, but the last week ticked up — possibly finding a floor. That leaves it near the bottom of its tracked range. It typically swings about ±3.3% in a month. Worst tracked stretch: a 13% drawdown from peak; it sits 12% below that peak now.
eBay supply is growing: active listings are up 51% over the last 60 days — more sellers than buyers for now. The set's cards are worth about $1,639 — 5.7× the box price, vs a typical 2.9× for Pokemon. That rich multiple adds +1 to the score. Across Pokemon boxes the median 30-day move is -1.2% (32% of boxes up), and this one is running 1.4 points ahead of that pace.
No supply contraction and no price momentum — nothing actionable right now. Two ways it earns a Buy rating: a 60-day supply drop past 10% while the price holds, or a value setup — a price near the bottom of its range that stabilizes while the set's card value stays rich vs the box.
Context & evidence · trades at 1.8× the ~$162 standard retail price of a Pokemon box of its era · data confidence A: 123 price reads over 198 days · 30 supply reads · volatility measured. Grades improve automatically as history accrues — we publish the evidence depth, not just the verdict.
Price history
eBay supply
