This box trades at $260. It's been sliding: down 30.5% over 90 days and still soft. That leaves it near the bottom of its tracked range. It typically swings about ±15.0% in a month — jumpy for a Pokemon box, so single-digit dips here are mostly noise. Worst tracked stretch: a 31% drawdown from peak; it sits 31% below that peak now.
eBay supply is growing: active listings are up 2638% over the last 60 days — more sellers than buyers for now. Across Pokemon boxes the median 30-day move is -1.2% (32% of boxes up), and this one is running 1.7 points behind that pace.
This set has not released yet — it comes out on 2026-11-06, 25 days from now. What you are looking at is pre-order pricing: a thin market of allocation and hype with no sell-through behind it, which is exactly the kind of price that drops once product is actually on shelves. No buy, watch or trim rating fires on an unreleased product, whatever the supply and price readings say. Ratings unlock 90 days after release, once there is a real market to read.
Context & evidence · trades at 1.6× the ~$162 standard retail price of a Pokemon box of its era · data confidence B: moderate price history (18 reads / 49 days) · 14 supply reads · volatility measured. Grades improve automatically as history accrues — we publish the evidence depth, not just the verdict.