This box trades at $463, 8% below its 1-year high of $503. It's been sliding: down 7.6% over 90 days and still soft. That leaves it near the bottom of its tracked range. It typically swings about ±1.2% in a month — calm by Pokemon box standards, so moves that size are worth noticing. Worst tracked stretch: a 8% drawdown from peak; it sits 8% below that peak now.
eBay supply is growing: active listings are up 3% over the last 60 days — more sellers than buyers for now. The set's cards are worth about $2,073 — 4.5× the box price, vs a typical 2.9× for Pokemon. That rich multiple adds +1 to the score. Across Pokemon boxes the median 30-day move is -1.2% (32% of boxes up), and this one is running 4.9 points behind that pace. Lagging its own market trims 1 point.
No supply contraction and no price momentum — nothing actionable right now. Two ways it earns a Buy rating: a 60-day supply drop past 10% while the price holds, or a value setup — a price near the bottom of its range that stabilizes while the set's card value stays rich vs the box.
Context & evidence · trades at 2.9× the ~$162 standard retail price of a Pokemon box of its era · data confidence A: 117 price reads over 181 days · 26 supply reads · volatility measured. Grades improve automatically as history accrues — we publish the evidence depth, not just the verdict.
Price history
eBay supply
