This box trades at $187, 32% below its 1-year high of $276. It fell 10.9% over 90 days and has stabilized in the last month. That leaves it near the bottom of its tracked range. It typically swings about ±11.6% in a month — jumpy for a Pokemon box, so single-digit dips here are mostly noise. Worst tracked stretch: a 37% drawdown from peak; it sits 32% below that peak now.
eBay supply is tightening: active listings are down 18% over the last 60 days (~2702 live now). The set's cards are worth about $767 — 4.1× the box price, vs a typical 2.9× for Pokemon. That rich multiple adds +1 to the score. Across Pokemon boxes the median 30-day move is -1.2% (32% of boxes up), and this one is running 6.9 points ahead of that pace. Beating its own market adds +1 — the move is this box's, not the tide's.
Tightening supply with a price that's holding is the classic setup — rated Strong Buy. It's also 32% below its high, so there's room to run (+1). What would end it: supply refilling (the 60-day drop easing back under 10%), or the 30-day price slipping more than 2%.
Context & evidence · trades at 1.2× the ~$162 standard retail price of a Pokemon box of its era · data confidence A: 123 price reads over 198 days · 30 supply reads · volatility measured. Grades improve automatically as history accrues — we publish the evidence depth, not just the verdict.
Price history
eBay supply
