This box trades at $187, 32% below its 1-year high of $276. It's been sliding: down 19.8% over 90 days and still soft. That leaves it near the bottom of its tracked range. It typically swings about ±14.8% in a month — jumpy for a Pokemon box, so single-digit dips here are mostly noise. Worst tracked stretch: a 37% drawdown from peak; it sits 32% below that peak now.
eBay supply is growing: active listings are up 12% over the last 60 days — more sellers than buyers for now. The set's cards are worth about $875 — 4.7× the box price, vs a typical 2.9× for Pokemon. That rich multiple adds +1 to the score. Across Pokemon boxes the median 30-day move is -4.7% (14% of boxes up), and this one is running 3.6 points ahead of that pace. Beating its own market adds +1 — the move is this box's, not the tide's.
No supply contraction and no price momentum — nothing actionable right now. Two ways it earns a Buy rating: a 60-day supply drop past 10% while the price holds, or a value setup — a price near the bottom of its range that stabilizes while the set's card value stays rich vs the box.
Context & evidence · trades at 1.2× the ~$162 standard retail price of a Pokemon box of its era · data confidence A: 110 price reads over 153 days · 18 supply reads · volatility measured. Grades improve automatically as history accrues — we publish the evidence depth, not just the verdict.
Price history
eBay supply
