This box trades at $402 — right at its 1-year high. It's in a steady climb: up 5.3% over 90 days and still rising this week. That puts it in the upper part of its tracked range. It typically swings about ±1.2% in a month — calm by One Piece box standards, so moves that size are worth noticing.
eBay supply is tightening: active listings are down 35% over the last 60 days (~57 live now). The set's cards are worth about $4,225 — 10.5× the box price, vs a typical 18.6× for One Piece. That thin multiple trims 1 point off the score. Across One Piece boxes the median 30-day move is -1.8% (29% of boxes up), and this one is running 6.4 points ahead of that pace. Beating its own market adds +1 — the move is this box's, not the tide's.
Tightening supply with a price that's holding is the classic setup — rated Strong Buy. It's also pushing into new highs rather than stalling at them: supply is tightening while the price keeps making ground, and the last week hasn't turned down. A squeeze that's still being paid up for is the strongest version of this setup, so being near the high counts for it here, not against it. What would end it: supply refilling (the 60-day drop easing back under 10%), or the 30-day price slipping more than 2%.
Context & evidence · trades at 3.4× the ~$120 standard retail price of a One Piece box of its era · data confidence A: 123 price reads over 198 days · 30 supply reads · volatility measured. Grades improve automatically as history accrues — we publish the evidence depth, not just the verdict.
Price history
eBay supply
