This box trades at $224, 44% below its 1-year high of $398. It's in a steady climb: up 27.4% over 90 days and still rising this week. That leaves it near the bottom of its tracked range. It typically swings about ±9.2% in a month — jumpy for a One Piece box, so single-digit dips here are mostly noise. Worst tracked stretch: a 56% drawdown from peak; it sits 44% below that peak now.
eBay supply is tightening: active listings are down 8% over the last 60 days (~380 live now). The set's cards are worth about $5,346 — 23.9× the box price, vs a typical 18.6× for One Piece. That rich multiple adds +1 to the score. Across One Piece boxes the median 30-day move is -1.8% (29% of boxes up), and this one is running 4.5 points ahead of that pace. Beating its own market adds +1 — the move is this box's, not the tide's.
This is a value setup, not a momentum one: the price sits near the bottom of its range, the last week has stabilized, supply isn't expanding, and the set's cards are worth more than usual relative to the box — rated Buy. What would end it: the price rolling over again (a negative week), supply expanding (a reprint tell), or the set's card value thinning out relative to the box.
Context & evidence · trades at 1.9× the ~$120 standard retail price of a One Piece box of its era · data confidence A: 100 price reads over 175 days · 30 supply reads · volatility measured. Grades improve automatically as history accrues — we publish the evidence depth, not just the verdict.
Price history
eBay supply
