This box trades at $221, 44% below its 1-year high of $398. It fell 14.9% over 90 days and has stabilized in the last month. That leaves it near the bottom of its tracked range. It typically swings about ±12.9% in a month — jumpy for a One Piece box, so single-digit dips here are mostly noise. Worst tracked stretch: a 56% drawdown from peak; it sits 44% below that peak now.
eBay supply is tightening: active listings are down 18% over the last 60 days (~436 live now). The set's cards are worth about $5,938 — 26.9× the box price, vs a typical 17.1× for One Piece. That rich multiple adds +1 to the score. Across One Piece boxes the median 30-day move is -0.0% (45% of boxes up), and this one is running 8.2 points ahead of that pace. Beating its own market adds +1 — the move is this box's, not the tide's.
Tightening supply with a price that's holding is the classic setup — rated Strong Buy. It's also 44% below its high, so there's room to run (+1). What would end it: supply refilling (the 60-day drop easing back under 10%), or the 30-day price slipping more than 2%.
Context & evidence · trades at 1.8× the ~$120 standard retail price of a One Piece box of its era · data confidence A: 87 price reads over 130 days · 18 supply reads · volatility measured. Grades improve automatically as history accrues — we publish the evidence depth, not just the verdict.
Price history
eBay supply
