This box trades at $4,961, 22% below its 1-year high of $6,354. It's been sliding: down 14.9% over 90 days and still soft. That leaves it near the bottom of its tracked range. It typically swings about ±8.1% in a month — jumpy for a One Piece box, so single-digit dips here are mostly noise. Worst tracked stretch: a 22% drawdown from peak; it sits 22% below that peak now.
eBay supply is growing: active listings are up 9% over the last 60 days — more sellers than buyers for now. The set's cards are worth about $8,612 — 1.7× the box price, vs a typical 17.1× for One Piece. That thin multiple trims 1 point off the score. Across One Piece boxes the median 30-day move is -0.0% (45% of boxes up), and this one is running 21.6 points behind that pace. Lagging its own market trims 1 point.
No supply contraction and no price momentum — nothing actionable right now. Two ways it earns a Buy rating: a 60-day supply drop past 10% while the price holds, or a value setup — a price near the bottom of its range that stabilizes while the set's card value stays rich vs the box.
Context & evidence · trades at 41.4× the ~$120 standard retail price of a One Piece box of its era · data confidence A: 110 price reads over 153 days · 18 supply reads · volatility measured. Grades improve automatically as history accrues — we publish the evidence depth, not just the verdict.
Price history
eBay supply
