This box trades at $440, 28% below its 1-year high of $610. It ran up 7.6% over 90 days but has given back 5.7% in the last month. That leaves it near the bottom of its tracked range. It typically swings about ±9.4% in a month — jumpy for a One Piece box, so single-digit dips here are mostly noise. Worst tracked stretch: a 35% drawdown from peak; it sits 28% below that peak now.
eBay supply is tightening: active listings are down 1% over the last 60 days (~289 live now). The set's cards are worth about $40,605 — 92.3× the box price, vs a typical 18.6× for One Piece. That rich multiple adds +1 to the score. Across One Piece boxes the median 30-day move is -1.8% (29% of boxes up), and this one is running 3.9 points behind that pace. Lagging its own market trims 1 point.
No supply contraction and no price momentum — nothing actionable right now. Two ways it earns a Buy rating: a 60-day supply drop past 10% while the price holds, or a value setup — a price near the bottom of its range that stabilizes while the set's card value stays rich vs the box.
Context & evidence · trades at 3.7× the ~$120 standard retail price of a One Piece box of its era · data confidence A: 123 price reads over 198 days · 30 supply reads · volatility measured. Grades improve automatically as history accrues — we publish the evidence depth, not just the verdict.
Price history
eBay supply
