This box trades at $1,095, 8% below its 1-year high of $1,196. It ran up 6.6% over 90 days but has given back 7.3% in the last month. It sits mid-range for the period tracked. It typically swings about ±3.7% in a month. Worst tracked stretch: a 8% drawdown from peak; it sits 8% below that peak now.
eBay supply is growing: active listings are up 19% over the last 60 days — more sellers than buyers for now. The set's cards are worth about $15,385 — 14.0× the box price, vs a typical 17.1× for One Piece. Across One Piece boxes the median 30-day move is -0.4% (41% of boxes up), and this one is running 6.9 points behind that pace. Lagging its own market trims 1 point.
No supply contraction and no price momentum — nothing actionable right now. Two ways it earns a Buy rating: a 60-day supply drop past 10% while the price holds, or a value setup — a price near the bottom of its range that stabilizes while the set's card value stays rich vs the box.
Context & evidence · trades at 9.1× the ~$120 standard retail price of a One Piece box of its era · data confidence A: 111 price reads over 156 days · 18 supply reads · volatility measured. Grades improve automatically as history accrues — we publish the evidence depth, not just the verdict.
Price history
eBay supply
