This box trades at $249, 4% below its 1-year high of $260. A quiet quarter overall, but it's picked up 13.4% in the last month. That puts it in the upper part of its tracked range. It typically swings about ±17.6% in a month — jumpy for a One Piece box, so single-digit dips here are mostly noise. Worst tracked stretch: a 25% drawdown from peak; it sits 4% below that peak now.
eBay supply is tightening: active listings are down 11% over the last 60 days (~169 live now). The set's cards are worth about $6,739 — 27.1× the box price, vs a typical 12.8× for One Piece. That rich multiple adds +1 to the score. Across One Piece boxes the median 30-day move is +1.9% (89% of boxes up), and this one is running 11.6 points ahead of that pace. Beating its own market adds +1 — the move is this box's, not the tide's.
Supply is tightening, but the box sits within 5% of its 1-year high — little room left to run, so it's held at WATCH. A pullback below roughly $247 — or a decisive break to new highs — reopens the buy case.