This box trades at $255, 3% below its 1-year high of $263. It's up 20.6% over 90 days, though the pace has cooled lately. That puts it in the upper part of its tracked range. It typically swings about ±10.4% in a month — jumpy for a One Piece box, so single-digit dips here are mostly noise. Worst tracked stretch: a 25% drawdown from peak; it sits 3% below that peak now.
eBay supply is tightening: active listings are down 39% over the last 60 days (~128 live now). The set's cards are worth about $6,666 — 26.1× the box price, vs a typical 17.1× for One Piece. That rich multiple adds +1 to the score. Across One Piece boxes the median 30-day move is -0.0% (45% of boxes up), and this one is running 0.9 points behind that pace.
Supply is tightening, but the box sits within 5% of its 1-year high AND the last week turned down — pinned at the ceiling with momentum rolling over, so it's held at Watch. (A box at its high that's still climbing is treated as a breakout and stays a buy.) A pullback below roughly $249 — or a decisive break to new highs — reopens the buy case.
Context & evidence · trades at 2.1× the ~$120 standard retail price of a One Piece box of its era · data confidence A: 110 price reads over 153 days · 18 supply reads · volatility measured. Grades improve automatically as history accrues — we publish the evidence depth, not just the verdict.
Price history
eBay supply
