This box trades at $496 — right at its 1-year high. It's in a steady climb: up 23.8% over 90 days and still rising this week. That puts it in the upper part of its tracked range. It typically swings about ±4.9% in a month.
eBay supply is tightening: active listings are down 14% over the last 60 days (~113 live now). The set's cards are worth about $12,680 — 25.6× the box price, vs a typical 12.8× for One Piece. That rich multiple adds +1 to the score. Across One Piece boxes the median 30-day move is +1.9% (89% of boxes up), and this one is running 1.0 points behind that pace.
Supply is tightening, but the box sits within 5% of its 1-year high — little room left to run, so it's held at WATCH. A pullback below roughly $471 — or a decisive break to new highs — reopens the buy case.