This box trades at $262, 2% below its 1-year high of $266. It's up 30.6% over 90 days, though the pace has cooled lately. That puts it in the upper part of its tracked range. It typically swings about ±7.6% in a month. Worst tracked stretch: a 15% drawdown from peak.
eBay supply is tightening: active listings are down 16% over the last 60 days (~66 live now). The set's cards are worth about $7,381 — 28.2× the box price, vs a typical 17.9× for Lorcana. That rich multiple adds +1 to the score. Across Lorcana boxes the median 30-day move is +0.3% (62% of boxes up), and this one is running 3.9 points ahead of that pace. Beating its own market adds +1 — the move is this box's, not the tide's.
Supply is tightening, but the box sits within 5% of its 1-year high AND the last week turned down — pinned at the ceiling with momentum rolling over, so it's held at Watch. (A box at its high that's still climbing is treated as a breakout and stays a buy.) A pullback below roughly $253 — or a decisive break to new highs — reopens the buy case.
Context & evidence · trades at 1.8× the ~$144 standard retail price of a Lorcana box of its era · data confidence A: 122 price reads over 198 days · 30 supply reads · volatility measured. Grades improve automatically as history accrues — we publish the evidence depth, not just the verdict.
Price history
eBay supply
