This box trades at $215, 16% below its 1-year high of $257. It ran up 65.7% over 90 days but has given back 5.5% in the last month. That puts it in the upper part of its tracked range. It typically swings about ±22.8% in a month — jumpy for a Lorcana box, so single-digit dips here are mostly noise. Worst tracked stretch: a 35% drawdown from peak; it sits 16% below that peak now.
eBay supply is growing: active listings are up 38% over the last 60 days — more sellers than buyers for now. The set's cards are worth about $8,591 — 40.0× the box price, vs a typical 14.8× for Lorcana. That rich multiple adds +1 to the score. Across Lorcana boxes the median 30-day move is +0.7% (54% of boxes up), and this one is running 6.3 points behind that pace. Lagging its own market trims 1 point.
No supply contraction and no price momentum — nothing actionable right now. Two ways it earns a Buy rating: a 60-day supply drop past 10% while the price holds, or a value setup — a price near the bottom of its range that stabilizes while the set's card value stays rich vs the box.
Context & evidence · trades at 1.5× the ~$144 standard retail price of a Lorcana box of its era · data confidence A: 109 price reads over 153 days · 18 supply reads · volatility measured. Grades improve automatically as history accrues — we publish the evidence depth, not just the verdict.
Price history
eBay supply
