This box trades at $246 — right at its 1-year high. It's in a steady climb: up 31.2% over 90 days and still rising this week. That puts it in the upper part of its tracked range. It typically swings about ±8.8% in a month — jumpy for a Lorcana box, so single-digit dips here are mostly noise. Worst tracked stretch: a 16% drawdown from peak.
eBay supply is tightening: active listings are down 29% over the last 60 days (~51 live now). The set's cards are worth about $6,516 — 26.5× the box price, vs a typical 17.9× for Lorcana. That rich multiple adds +1 to the score. Across Lorcana boxes the median 30-day move is +0.3% (62% of boxes up), and this one is running 19.1 points ahead of that pace. Beating its own market adds +1 — the move is this box's, not the tide's.
Tightening supply with a price that's holding is the classic setup — rated Strong Buy. It's also pushing into new highs rather than stalling at them: supply is tightening while the price keeps making ground, and the last week hasn't turned down. A squeeze that's still being paid up for is the strongest version of this setup, so being near the high counts for it here, not against it. What would end it: supply refilling (the 60-day drop easing back under 10%), or the 30-day price slipping more than 2%.
Context & evidence · trades at 1.7× the ~$144 standard retail price of a Lorcana box of its era · data confidence A: 122 price reads over 198 days · 30 supply reads · volatility measured. Grades improve automatically as history accrues — we publish the evidence depth, not just the verdict.
Price history
eBay supply
