This box trades at $196 — right at its 1-year high. It's in a steady climb: up 87.7% over 90 days and still rising this week. That puts it in the upper part of its tracked range. It typically swings about ±13.2% in a month. Worst tracked stretch: a 16% drawdown from peak.
eBay supply is growing: active listings are up 8% over the last 60 days — more sellers than buyers for now. The set's cards are worth about $6,371 — 32.5× the box price, vs a typical 14.8× for Lorcana. That rich multiple adds +1 to the score. Across Lorcana boxes the median 30-day move is +0.7% (54% of boxes up), and this one is running 7.8 points ahead of that pace. Beating its own market adds +1 — the move is this box's, not the tide's.
No supply contraction and no price momentum — nothing actionable right now. Two ways it earns a Buy rating: a 60-day supply drop past 10% while the price holds, or a value setup — a price near the bottom of its range that stabilizes while the set's card value stays rich vs the box.
Context & evidence · trades at 1.4× the ~$144 standard retail price of a Lorcana box of its era · data confidence A: 109 price reads over 153 days · 18 supply reads · volatility measured. Grades improve automatically as history accrues — we publish the evidence depth, not just the verdict.
Price history
eBay supply
