This box trades at $116, 10% below its 1-year high of $128. It ran up 19.2% over 90 days but has given back 8.0% in the last month. That puts it in the upper part of its tracked range. It typically swings about ±6.1% in a month — calm by Lorcana box standards, so moves that size are worth noticing. Worst tracked stretch: a 10% drawdown from peak; it sits 10% below that peak now.
eBay supply is growing: active listings are up 15% over the last 60 days — more sellers than buyers for now. The set's cards are worth about $1,496 — 12.9× the box price, vs a typical 14.8× for Lorcana. Across Lorcana boxes the median 30-day move is +0.7% (54% of boxes up), and this one is running 8.7 points behind that pace. Lagging its own market trims 1 point.
No supply contraction and no price momentum — nothing actionable right now. Two ways it earns a Buy rating: a 60-day supply drop past 10% while the price holds, or a value setup — a price near the bottom of its range that stabilizes while the set's card value stays rich vs the box.
Context & evidence · trades at 0.8× the ~$144 standard retail price of a Lorcana box of its era · data confidence A: 109 price reads over 153 days · 18 supply reads · volatility measured. Grades improve automatically as history accrues — we publish the evidence depth, not just the verdict.
Price history
eBay supply
