This box trades at $472, 4% below its 1-year high of $489. It ran up 42.1% over 90 days but has given back 3.2% in the last month. That puts it in the upper part of its tracked range. It typically swings about ±7.6% in a month. Worst tracked stretch: a 10% drawdown from peak; it sits 4% below that peak now.
eBay supply is growing: active listings are up 21% over the last 60 days — more sellers than buyers for now. The set's cards are worth about $3,708 — 7.9× the box price, vs a typical 14.8× for Lorcana. That thin multiple trims 1 point off the score. Across Lorcana boxes the median 30-day move is +0.7% (54% of boxes up), and this one is running 3.9 points behind that pace. Lagging its own market trims 1 point.
No supply contraction and no price momentum — nothing actionable right now. Two ways it earns a Buy rating: a 60-day supply drop past 10% while the price holds, or a value setup — a price near the bottom of its range that stabilizes while the set's card value stays rich vs the box.
Context & evidence · trades at 3.3× the ~$144 standard retail price of a Lorcana box of its era · data confidence A: 109 price reads over 153 days · 18 supply reads · volatility measured. Grades improve automatically as history accrues — we publish the evidence depth, not just the verdict.
Price history
eBay supply
