$171

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Booster box · Lorcana

Rise of the Floodborn

Good time to buy · 6/10

The Prof’s take

Not much drama with Rise of the Floodborn lately, and fewer boxes are listed for sale than two months ago. It keeps making new highs while listings dry up. I'd be happy picking one up at this price.

— the Prof

What would change my mind

Listings piling back up, or the price slipping more than 2% in a monthRight now about 200 are for sale on eBay, down 14.1% from two months ago.

Open it or keep it sealed?

Keep it sealed. Boxes are getting scarcer, and that's worth more than what's inside right now.

Set value$1,307

Box price$171

Show me the numbers

Price since we started tracking it

Market price, in dollars.

Forecast bands are Pro. Where I expect the price over the next two months, drawn right on this chart.

See the back room

Price today$171

1-year high$172

Last 90 daysAbout flat

Last 30 daysAbout flat

This weekDown 0.6%

eBay listings~213 live, down 14.1% in 60 days

Set value$1,307, 7.7× the box (typical Lorcana 17.9×)

Vs. retail1.2× the ~$144 original price

Data confidenceA

eBay listings over time

How many are for sale. Fewer usually means harder to find.

The long version

This box trades at $171, right at its 1-year high. Price has been broadly stable across the last quarter. That puts it in the upper part of its tracked range. It typically swings about ±1.5% in a month, calm by Lorcana box standards, so moves that size are worth noticing. Worst tracked stretch: a 12% drawdown from peak.

eBay supply is tightening: active listings are down 14% over the last 60 days (~213 live now). The set's cards are worth about $1,307, 7.7× the box price, vs a typical 17.9× for Lorcana. That thin multiple trims 1 point off the score. Across Lorcana boxes the median 30-day move is +0.3% (62% of boxes up), and this one is running 0.0 points ahead of that pace.

Tightening supply with a price that's holding is the pattern I look for, rated “Good time to buy”. It's also pushing into new highs rather than stalling at them: supply is tightening while the price keeps making ground, and the last week hasn't turned down. A squeeze that's still being paid up for is the strongest version of this pattern, so being near the high counts for it here, not against it. What would end it: supply refilling (the 60-day drop easing back under 10%), or the 30-day price slipping more than 2%.

What this is based on: 122 price reads over 198 days, 30 supply reads.