This box trades at $121 — right at its 1-year high. It's in a steady climb: up 36.9% over 90 days and still rising this week. That puts it in the upper part of its tracked range. It typically swings about ±5.6% in a month — calm by Lorcana box standards, so moves that size are worth noticing. Worst tracked stretch: a 22% drawdown from peak.
eBay supply is tightening: active listings are down 17% over the last 60 days (~151 live now). The set's cards are worth about $1,355 — 11.2× the box price, vs a typical 14.8× for Lorcana. Across Lorcana boxes the median 30-day move is +0.7% (54% of boxes up), and this one is running 6.0 points ahead of that pace. Beating its own market adds +1 — the move is this box's, not the tide's.
Tightening supply with a price that's holding is the classic setup — rated Strong Buy. It's also pushing into new highs rather than stalling at them: supply is tightening while the price keeps making ground, and the last week hasn't turned down. A squeeze that's still being paid up for is the strongest version of this setup, so being near the high counts for it here, not against it. What would end it: supply refilling (the 60-day drop easing back under 10%), or the 30-day price slipping more than 2%.
Context & evidence · trades at 0.8× the ~$144 standard retail price of a Lorcana box of its era · data confidence A: 109 price reads over 153 days · 18 supply reads · volatility measured. Grades improve automatically as history accrues — we publish the evidence depth, not just the verdict.
Price history
eBay supply
