This box trades at $449, 26% below its 1-year high of $610. It's been sliding: down 23.5% over 90 days and still soft. That leaves it near the bottom of its tracked range. It typically swings about ±21.6% in a month — jumpy for a One Piece box, so single-digit dips here are mostly noise. Worst tracked stretch: a 31% drawdown from peak; it sits 26% below that peak now.
eBay supply is growing: active listings are up 11% over the last 60 days — more sellers than buyers for now. The set's cards are worth about $42,829 — 95.4× the box price, vs a typical 12.8× for One Piece. That rich multiple adds +1 to the score. Across One Piece boxes the median 30-day move is +1.9% (89% of boxes up), and this one is running 6.8 points behind that pace. Lagging its own market trims 1 point.
No supply contraction and no price momentum — nothing actionable right now. What to watch for: a 60-day supply drop past 10% while the price holds, which flags BUY SETUP.