This box trades at $152, 14% below its 1-year high of $177. It's up 64.5% over 90 days, though the pace has cooled lately. That puts it in the upper part of its tracked range. It typically swings about ±14.6% in a month — jumpy for a Lorcana box, so single-digit dips here are mostly noise. Worst tracked stretch: a 14% drawdown from peak; it sits 14% below that peak now.
eBay supply is growing: active listings are up 44% over the last 60 days — more sellers than buyers for now. The set's cards are worth about $2,762 — 18.1× the box price, vs a typical 13.2× for Lorcana. That rich multiple adds +1 to the score. Across Lorcana boxes the median 30-day move is +35.5% (100% of boxes up), and this one is running 29.4 points ahead of that pace. Beating its own market adds +1 — the move is this box's, not the tide's.
No supply contraction and no price momentum — nothing actionable right now. What to watch for: a 60-day supply drop past 10% while the price holds, which flags BUY SETUP.